Friday, 4 March 2011

Anticipating large anti-government protest in Bahrain today

High tweeting from lulu for a morning was 60 out of 100 on our tweet scale at 09:45 GMT 12:45 local time. This is extremely high for the time of day and the size of the city. For example during the recent protest in Al Fatih in support of the government, which attacked likely 10,000s of people we never saw tweeting levels at night rise to this.

We are also seeing tweeting at Salmaniya, about 61 at 10:00 GMT hospital Salmaniya is a popular starting point for protest marches and shows up high in anti-government protests.

Meanwhile we are seeing elevated but not high tweeting at Al Fatih Mosque about 41, site of pro-government protests. Last check had the rate at 41, which is elevated but not high.

Tweeting levels tend to rise during the day and peak at night. People generally don't tweet in the morning. Patterns of tweeting start out low and extend during the day so starting a day with this level of tweeting generally, in our experience means organization.

The twitter hashtag for #Bahrain and #Lulu are very active and overwhelmingly in Arabic. This would indicate high local and regional traffic as the greater English speaking community focuses on Libya.

We had read earlier reports that today would hold a protest, and Fridays are popular days for anti-government protests. Given the government claimed that 450,000 people attended the recent pro-government protests, an utter impossibility without any solid evidence, likely anti-government protesters will be highly motivated to make a show of size.

So we are anticipating a very large anti-government demonstration in Bahrain around the Pearl Roundabout, the Hospital and the government buildings.

Based on Web 3.0 analysis we would not be surprised if the protest reaches up to 100,000 total and will occupy the area from Pearl Roundabout in to the city north of the Ministry of Interior Fort, but may move south to the Hospital. Protests seem to never move further south towards to US Embassy for obvious reasons.

But there is also a probably of counter demonstrations starting from Al Fatih Mosque. There is a chance perhaps the two demonstrations might engage in some violence if a counter demonstration does form and moves west.

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