Wednesday, 6 April 2011

A global world is our future

Not just BRICs, or the West, or Asia, the future development will be a balance of growth from various nations, some new, some old and some surprising. And it will be this growth that will drive which mobile platforms dominate the future of Web 3.0 and beyond.

Middle sized cities will be the source of world GDP growth: "23 megacities and 577 middleweights make up one-fifth of the world’s population and two-thirds are located in emerging market countries, including China, India and Latin America. Most of the economic growth will come from the 577 middle weight (population 150,000 to 10 million) cities in the emerging markets."

In terms of urban GDP growth from 2007-2025 by country 
1. China        17.1 trillion   
2. USA           5.9 trillion 
3. India         2.0 trillion 
4. Brazil        1.5 trillion 
5. Mexico        0.87 trillion 
6. S. Korea      0.82 trillion 
7. Russia        0.68 trillion 
8. UK            0.62 trillion 
9. Taiwan        0.59 trillion 
10. Turkey       0.53 trillion 
11. Germany      0.52 trillion 
12. Indonesia    0.50 trillion 
13. Japan        0.49 trillion 
14. Australia    0.47 trillion 
15. France       0.41 trillion 
16. S Africa     0.41 trillion 
17. Canada       0.36 trillion 
18. Saudi Arabia 0.33 trillion 
19. Malaysia     0.29 trillion 
20. Columbia     0.29 trillion

Source the Next Big Future

Some lessons to learned. First despite the rise of the BRICs and their key growth, the West is far from dead and a massive amount of the growth the world will have will come from established economies. This global growth will more likely be a bigger pie, if we can learn to use resources smarter. Though China will be the biggest engine of growth there is still plenty to come from the West and some surprising nations like Mexico.

But overall the BRICs and developing nations will account for most of the future growth. This will therefore be the biggest future smart phone market. Currently Nokia owns this space and its recent arrangement with Windows Mobile may give Microsoft the last laugh in the mobile space.

But if you exclude China, the engine of growth will still contain a lot of developed nations. These are already rich places where people can afford tablets and iPhones so the market for highest end gadgets to rich nations will likely remain strong.

It will be interesting to see if Android can win the BRICs and do for mobile what Windows did for the PC, or if Nokia's powerful position will do for Microsoft what IBM did for them in the 1980s. And where does iPhone fit in a world where a lot of growth will be coming from places like China, India, Mexico, and Russia?

Given the relatively low cost of gadgets and the low cost of IT development in the Internet world, social and mobile media have a very bright future of potential profits in a world globally getting richer and richer.

We hope.

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