|Odds of the election out come set by betting on the Iowa Election Market|
|Gallup and other major polling services utterly failed to predict the outcome despite and extensive resources and skills.|
One is about Nate Silver and the rise of Big Data science. Nate Silver, and other Data Scientists working at a few polling services and for the Obama team were able to apply difficult statistical science to form a more accurate idea of the political landscape.
According to this narrative the success is a accomplishment of a small number of elites with access to massive amounts of Big Data, much of it proprietary, and elite skills of analysis.
But if you look at a wisdom of the crowd site like the Iowa Election Market where thousands of ordinary people place bets on the outcome of the election. These crowd sites did a far better job of predicting the the outcome than the Romney organisation or the major polling services, especially Gallup Poll who utterly failed.
|The bets of ordinary users at the Iowa Election market gave a far better picture of the likely outcomes of the election than Gallup poll.|
It is critical that this success of the wisdom of the crowd not be ignored as worthy praises is layered on Data Science and Nate Silver.