Watch Is China's Fast-Growing Economy Headed for a Crash? on PBS. See more from PBS NewsHour.
I am deeply concerned about the China economy. Mostly because of the lack of Open and Big Data about China. China remains a rather obscure nation, one where data that does not fit in to the Government's model is hard to come by. Over the past year I have development methods for tracking food traffic and consumer discussions which I have applied to markets in the US, EU and Africa. With these tools I have found I can get a unique view of the concerns of local people who have access to mobile technology, which is a growing segment of the population.
But China is closed to me, I don't have the Big Data made public that allows me to be pretty certain that say the US economy is in well established growth while the UK, Spain and Greece are stuck in recessions. Its not just the economic being published, I can engage ordinary people via Twitter and Foursquare to get a view of their lives. I can see the boom in mobile devices and creativity in Lagos and Jakarta, I can read how many shops in Mall of America had excellent Christmases, and I can see that Oxford Street in London was rather dull this Christmas.
From China I just see a small trickle of tourists from major sites. Its a black hole. The people who are telling us all that China is going to continue to boom have missed ever bust so far.